Events in 2024 have given a foretaste of what might be expected.
The year 2025 is expected to pose significant challenges and offer equally significant opportunities for India in its bid for dominance over its geopolitical domain.
Countries that immediately matter to India are Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Myanmar. Indo-US, Sino-Indian, and Sino-US relations will also have a bearing on India’s prospects in the region.
2024, which is on its last legs, has given a foretaste of what is to come. There were significant changes in the environment. The pro-Indian Sheikh Hasina regime in Bangladesh was toppled in August by a mass movement, which New Delhi did not anticipate. It took five months to send Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri to mend fences with the Interim Government led by Dr Muhammad Yunus. Misri’s foray smoothed ruffled feathers in Bangladesh, but the communal passions whipped up in India over the alleged maltreatment of Hindus in Bangladesh prevented a full restoration of normalcy.
In Sri Lanka, a leftist and avowedly nationalistic political party, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), was swept to power, creating apprehensions in New Delhi. However, India quickly moved in with offers of grant projects to wean the rulers away from China, the JVP’s traditional ally and India’s rival in South Asia. As of now, India-Sri Lanka relations are on an even keel, with prospects of their remaining so looking good.
The recent State Visit of Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake showcased a spirit of mutual understanding. Projects that were controversial were put on the backburner or left for further discussions.
In the Maldives, a pro-China and anti-Indian regime led by President Mohamed Muizzu was won over by judiciously using punitive action and financial support before China stepped in. However, the Muizzu regime could become problematic if its popularity, already showing signs of waning, declines further due to missteps in managing the economy. Therefore, New Delhi will have to keep a close tab on the goings-on in the Maldives.
Nepal has always been a problem for India because of the dominance of its communist parties with their pro-China proclivities. Attempts to promote Hindu nationalism in a country largely communistic in orientation had backfired in the past. Currently, the attempt is to discourage Nepal from opting for Chinese aid rather than Indian aid.
Continuing with his anti-Indian line, the current Nepalese Prime Minister, K.P. Sharma Oli, visited Beijing recently, creating apprehension in New Delhi about new Chinese moves in Nepal.
Myanmar, always unstable, is on the boil again with armed rebel tribal groups in the north bordering India gaining dominance over the junta’s troops in power at Yangon.
India has been supporting the junta consistently despite the latter’s persecution of democrats, Christian non-Bamar tribal groups, and the Muslim Rohingyas in the northern districts bordering North-East India.
Since China had a hold on the junta, India thought it fit to cultivate the junta rather than the tribal rebels and the persecuted democratic groups. In recent times, the junta has been suffering reverses against the rebel armies in areas bordering India, triggering a minor refugee influx into India’s northeastern states, populated by kindred Christian tribes.
If the situation in northern Myanmar worsens, the influx could become a flood, destabilising India’s North East, where one of the states, Manipur, has been burning for months due to a conflict between the Hindu Meiteis and Christian Kukis.
United States
The ascent of maverick Donald Trump in US politics poses its own unpredictable challenges for India. Trump’s reported moves to meet China’s Xi Jinping and probably strike a deal with him could worry India, as India has long been counting on US technological and intelligence inputs to counter China’s threatening moves on the Sino-Indian border.
There have been reports that the US and China have signed an agreement on scientific cooperation and that Trump has invited Xi to attend his inauguration as US President in January.
Though Trump has made overtures to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, calling him a friend, there is no knowing if he would actually give concessions to India on trade and tariffs, as well as on visas and immigration.
2024 saw an unprecedented Indo-US face-off over the cross-boundary extra-judicial killing of a Canadian citizen of Indian origin in Canada, allegedly by Indian intelligence, and the alleged attempt on the life of an American citizen of Indian origin in the US by Indian intelligence. These cases are putting India-US relations under strain.
Close on the heels of these unusual developments came the indictment of a politically connected Indian tycoon Gautam Adani by a US court for alleged attempts to bribe Indian officials to get lucrative energy projects using the money of US investors.
Whether the Trump administration will help India pull its chestnuts out of the fire for the sake of India-US strategic cooperation remains to be seen.
China
Sensing a downturn in its relations with the US, New Delhi warmed up to the long-time adversary, China. Modi and Xi broke the ice by talking on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan (Russia) in October.
Earlier, India’s official economic adviser had said that India should welcome Chinese investment in some sectors to increase exports. More recently, the Indian and Chinese militaries agreed on patrolling rights on the Sino-Indian border in East Ladakh.
It is now reported that China and India will revive the periodic talks between their designated Special Representatives. These talks were suspended due to military face-offs on the border. Media reports said that in January, India’s Special Representative and National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, will fly to Beijing to meet his Chinese counterpart, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, to take forward the talks on the border dispute and other outstanding issues. An India-China thaw appears to be on the cards, at least for now.