US policy on South Asia as a whole will be one of continuity rather than change  

In the post-World War II era, relations between the US and South Asian countries have been both close and growing as the US had replaced Britain as the dominant power in the region. Therefore, an American Presidential election is of critical importance to India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Nepal, and the Maldives.

According to International Relations (IR) experts interviewed by the US journal Foreign Policy in October, Washington’s policy vis-à-vis South Asia will be one of “continuity” whether it is Donald Trump or Kamala Harris who wins. 

Maldives

US relations with the Maldives is expected to be smooth as the Mohamed Muizzu government appears to have given up its pro-China and anti-Indian character and is now dependent on India financially. China seems to have distanced itself from the Maldives for reasons not clear. With the Maldives under the care of strategic partner India, the US has little to worry about.

When Maldives was under President Abdulla Yameen (2013-1028), the marked tilt towards China and his radical polices worried the US, which openly alleged that Maldivians were joining the ISIS.

US Congressional interest in Maldives has focused on the strategic value of the country’s geographic position in the Indo-Pacific. Section 5595 of the James M. Inhofe National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023 requires the Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs to submit to the congressional foreign affairs committees a report outlining a two-year strategy assessing the resources and activities required to achieve certain policy objectives in the Indo-Pacific region, explicitly including the Maldives.

The United States recognises the importance of promoting security in the Indian Ocean and has worked closely with the Maldives on a range of security-related issues, including counterterrorism. The United States and Maldives signed the “Framework for U.S. Department of Defense-Maldives Ministry of Defence Defence and Security Relationship” in September 2020.

US foreign assistance resources aim to strengthen democratic institutions, civil society, fiscal transparency, maritime security, counterterrorism, and law enforcement.

Since September 2018, the US has provided US$36 million in bilateral foreign assistance to the Maldives. Since 2018, the US has provided more than US$10.8 million in Foreign Military Financing under the Bay of Bengal Initiative, in support of the Maldives’ maritime security capacity.

India

As India is the pivot of US policy on South Asia, Washington will look towards further defence tie-ups with India and work with it to counter China in the Indian Ocean.  

Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Centre’s South Asia Institute, told the Turkish news agency Anadolu that in the US, there is strong bipartisan support for close ties with India. Therefore, whether it is a Trump or a Harris administration, there will be continuity in the India policy. The US has differences with India over Russia and China, but still, India and the US will cooperate, Kugelman stressed.

However, it is undeniable that, right now, India-US relations are at a low ebb, to say the least. To India’s discomfiture, the US joined Canada in charging that its intelligence agency was plotting to kill Indian dissidents in North America. The US said that an American Sikh separatist, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, had been a target of India-handled assassins. The Pannun case is in court, and an Indian agent allegedly involved in the plot was extradited from the Czech Republic and brought to the US for trial.

Canada went to the extent of naming Indian Home Minister Amit Shah and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval as persons behind the alleged assassination plots. India stoutly denied any involvement, but it is in talks with the US at the National Security Advisors’ level to find a way out of the logjam.

Despite this, Kugelman said both Harris and Trump would not let it go. “They would pressure India to carry out an investigation.”

Though India and the US are strategic partners vis-à-vis China, they have divergent interests. India is now seeking a détente with China on the border issue and also more Chinese investments. This should worry both Trump and Harris.

India’s relations with Russia, however, are a different kettle of fish. Trump is suspected to be in cahoots with Putin, but Harris is resolutely opposed to Putin. Trump is strongly supportive of commercial ties with India, but at the same time, he is highly critical of India’s high tariffs.

Be that as it may, India and the US have too much at stake in their relations to allow ties to be hampered. The arms trade between India and the US has touched US$25 billion. In 2023, US investments in India were valued at approximately US$49.6 billion, and Indian investment in the US amounted to USD 4.6 billion. Millions of Indians live in the US.

Pakistan

No matter who is in the White House, Pakistan will not be a priority, is the dim view of Kamran Yousaf of Express Tribune. The US abandoned Pakistan, its ally in the Afghan war, after it withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021. The Afghan war thrust two million Afghan refugees onto Pakistan, but the US left without helping Pakistan cope with them.

On top of it, Trump accused Pakistan of playing a double game—taking American money to fight the Taliban while supporting the Taliban clandestinely. He blocked military aid to Pakistan.

However, Pakistan’s geographical location makes it important to the US. To keep Pakistan from turning totally hostile, the US has turned a blind eye to the Beijing-funded multi-billion dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Bangladesh

President Joe Biden put US-Bangladesh relations on an even keel after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, who had clashed with the US on human rights and other matters, such as her refusal to join the anti-China QUAD.

The student movement that ousted Hasina had the backing of the US. The current Chief Advisor to the interim government, Prof. Muhammad Yunus, is said to be the joint choice of the US, the agitating students, and Bangladeshi civil society. The US has been a strong supporter of civil liberties in Bangladesh, even sanctioning some of the top officials in Hasina’s security establishment. Human rights issues cement ties between the Yunus regime and Washington.

While it is clear that Kamala Harris will follow Biden’s footsteps regarding Bangladesh, Trump has taken a pro-Hasina stance, apparently with an eye on the influential Indian-American voters in the US.

Greeting American Hindus on Deepavali day, Trump said on X: “I strongly condemn the barbaric violence against Hindus, Christians, and other minorities who are getting attacked and looted by mobs in Bangladesh, which remains in a total state of chaos. It would have never happened on my watch. Kamala and Joe have ignored Hindus across the world and in America.”

“Under my administration, we will also strengthen our great partnership with India and my good friend, Prime Minister Modi.”

Trump could well have made these pro-Modi or pro-Hindu remarks only to secure the votes of the Hindu-dominated Indian-American community. Given the presence of US protégé Muhammad Yunus at the helm in Dhaka, Trump is more likely to strengthen US ties with Bangladesh than weaken them.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka’s relations with the US are unlikely to be different from the past, though the newly elected National Peoples’ Power (NPP) government portrays itself as radical leftist. The NPP leader and President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, has indicated that he can play ball with capitalism and the US-led West. 

Moreover, Colombo has not said or done anything to suggest a pro-China tilt. These factors should pave the way for a smooth relationship with the US.

However, the US has a long-standing and deep interest in incorporating Sri Lanka into its anti-China maritime security architecture, the QUAD. Yet, Sri Lankan governments have been wary of involvement in the QUAD, as no government has wanted the island to become a battleground for regional or global rivals.

Nevertheless, the US, whether under Trump or Harris, will press Sri Lanka to sign agreements on defence and security cooperation, including those that Sri Lanka has traditionally balked at, such as the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), which is a bilateral (or multilateral) agreement that outlines the legal status of US military personnel, their dependents, and their assets in a foreign country. SOFA also establishes rights and responsibilities between the US and the host country.

The US will also raise issues of human and minority rights, irrespective of who occupies the White House. Although Trump might be expected to be less human rights-oriented than Harris, he may not be able to disentangle himself entirely from a legacy issue like human rights.

In fact, he hasn’t. This is indicated in his message to American Hindu voters, in which he sharply criticised the way Hindus were being attacked in post-Hasina Bangladesh. He declared that under his watch, that would not have happened.

Afghanistan and Nepal

The Taliban-ruled Afghanistan would probably prefer Trump as President. During his earlier term, Trump had pulled US troops out of Afghanistan.

Nepal is ruled by a coalition between the pro-China Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) and the pro-India Nepali Congress party. Nepal and China had signed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) framework agreement in May 2017.

But Nepal has been expressing serious reservations about the text of the BRI. Nepal has said that it is not interested in commercial loans but only investments. Talks over the BRI projects and an implementation plan remain suspended.

Nepal has strong ties with the US. Nepal signed the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) agreement to receive US$500 million for development projects in 2017. The compact was ratified by Nepal’s Federal Parliament in 2022.