Bashar al-Assad’s fall may not be an unmixed blessing.

Bashar Al-Assad, the ruler of Syria since 2000, fled from his country on Sunday after his iron-clad security and political structures fell like a house of cards in the face of an unexpectedly strong rebel offensive.

The Syrian Emergency Task Force, an opposition group, said on X that “the Assad regime, Russia and Iran, have been officially defeated in Syria by the Syrian people.”

Russia, a long-time ally of Bashar, announced that he is in Russia and that he has been granted political asylum.

In Syria, internal factional fighting is anticipated. Internationally, Iran and Russia are expected to be weakened due to Bashar’s fall, while Israel will likely be strengthened, to the detriment of Iran and Palestine.

Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year rule was marked by the brutal suppression of dissent. A student of ophthalmology in the UK, Bashar was only 34 when he returned to Syria to take charge following the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad, in 2000.

Hafez al-Assad had killed 20,000 people in the city of Hama in 1982 to crush an uprising by the Muslim Brotherhood, a Islamic political group based in Egypt. However, the young and foreign-educated Bashar was expected to be moderate and true to his Baath Party’s socialist ideals. Indeed, Bashar started off well, making some positive contributions to the people of Syria.

But come the “Arab Spring,” a series of public uprisings in 2011, Bashar was caught on the wrong foot. He knew no other way of responding than to use force, like his father. This sparked a civil war that never ended. The US and the UN blamed Assad for a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 1,000 people in 2013.

Millions of Syrians fled the country, mostly to Europe, while millions more were displaced internally. Overall, 50% of Syria’s 23 million people fled their homes, creating a significant refugee crisis for host countries in Europe.

Bashar had two steadfast allies—Russia and Iran. These countries supported him in fighting the rebels. Russia provided air support from a naval base in Syria, while Iran supplied military advice and weapons. Lebanon-based Hezbollah, an ally of Iran, supplied fighters.

Surprisingly, even the US helped Bashar, albeit indirectly, by fighting the formidable ISIS and al-Qaeda in parts of Syria. The US also stationed troops to support the Kurdish Shias, who were fighting Iraqi Sunnis demanding a separate Kurdistan.

Despite substantial support in manpower and resources, Bashar managed to control only the cities, leaving most of Syria outside his grip.

When Assad’s allies became preoccupied—Russia with Ukraine and Iran with Israel—the rebels launched a strong offensive on 27 November. Bashar could not withstand the onslaught and fled Damascus on 8 December.

Post-Bashar Scenario

Intense factionalism among the rebels and the rise of radical groups represent major domestic threats to post-Bashar Syria. On the international front, confrontations with Iran and Russia are likely, while relations with the US will remain uncertain. If there is a net gainer, it will be Israel.

With Bashar gone, power is expected to fall into the hands of a rebel group called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This group was previously linked to al-Qaeda but severed its ties with it in 2016 and has since portrayed itself as a moderate organisation. However, the US continues to regard HTS as a terrorist group, viewing it as another iteration of al-Qaeda.

Even if the HTS takes charge, there are too many and too diverse groups in the political arena to ensure stability, as they will compete for power. While they are mostly Sunni Muslims, factionalism has long been endemic among these groups, and this is likely to continue. Therefore, peace and orderly development may still remain a far cry.

A section of the rebels follows extremist ideologies aligned with ISIS or al-Qaeda. The Syrian National Army is secular but divided into factions. Kurdish groups control territory in northeastern Syria, bordering Turkey in the north and Iraq in the east. They continue to receive support from the US, which maintains military bases in the area. The Kurds oppose Turkey, a NATO member, further complicating regional dynamics.

Then there are Alawite forces. The Alawite are a sect of Islam to which the Assad family belongs. They are a minority in Syria, making up only 10% of the population, which is more than 80% Sunni. The Alawite forces are concentrated in the coastal areas of western Syria. They maintain strong ties with Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Despite their recent defeat, they may regroup due to the absence of a unifying post-Assad figure or structure in Syria. 

With Bashar gone, Iran’s military supply lines to Hezbollah in Lebanon will be severed, weakening that group. Iran too will be considerably weakened in the West Asian arena.

The sole beneficiary appears to be Israel, which is likely to intensify its confrontational stance against Iran and Hamas in Gaza.

Refugee flows, cross-border violence and sectarian tensions are likely to escalate due to the expected confusion in Syria. Turkey is already hosting more than 3 million Syrian refugees. It will like to send them back. But will they be able to return?

In summary, Bashar’s departure may offer relief but only partially and temporarily. The future of Syria and the Middle East remains bleak.