The global order is undergoing a profound transformation, with US President Donald Trump acting as a catalyst for change, dismantling long-standing alliances and forging new ones.
The post-2024 world is witnessing a realignment that challenges old barriers and reshapes geopolitical dynamics.
The United States has shifted its focus in South Asia, cooling ties with traditional ally India while warming relations with Pakistan, despite Islamabad’s deep ties with China.
Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Indian imports but a lighter 19% on Pakistan, fuelling speculation that Pakistan may be drifting back towards the US orbit in which it was in the 1950s and 60s.
Pakistan responded swiftly to US overtures. Some analysts suggest Islamabad aims to leverage its relationship with China to act as a bridge between Washington and Beijing, as it did in the 1969–1971 period when it facilitated US recognition of the People’s Republic of China over Taiwan.
Trump has softened his stance on China, reducing tariffs and reportedly blocking Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s US travel plans.
While no firm date exists for a Trump–Xi Jinping meeting, a trade deal is anticipated in September.
India–Pakistan Tensions and US Influence
India, seen as a steadfast US partner since the 2000s through landmark defence agreements, has faced strained relations with Washington following a four-day India–Pakistan war in May 2025.
Trump’s claim that he brokered the ceasefire, averting a nuclear crisis, clashed with India’s narrative of a bilateral resolution. Pakistan, however, publicly credited Trump, even proposing him for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Infuriated with India’s intransigence, Trump imposed a steep 50% tariff on India on 9 August. He hosted Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, for an exclusive luncheon in June. US CENTCOM chief Gen. Michael Eric Kurilla praised Pakistan as a “phenomenal partner” in counterterrorism, a statement that irked India, which labels Pakistan a “sponsor of terrorism”.
US interest in Pakistan centres on its untapped rare earth minerals and oil reserves, while Pakistan is eager for American investment in those areas.
Field Marshal Munir is expected to visit CENTCOM headquarters in Tampa, Florida, and also to discuss oil exploration with US entrepreneurs.
India’s Pivot to Russia and China
Marginalised by the US, India has sought closer ties with Russia and China.
India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval recently met Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss oil supplies, defence deals, and regional security, according to TASS. Preparations are underway for a summit between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Vladimir Putin.
India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar is set to attend the India–Russia Inter-Governmental Commission meeting in late August to strengthen bilateral trade and technological cooperation.
US-Russia Rapprochement
In another interesting development, after failing to subdue Russia through sanctions, Trump extended an olive branch, announcing a meeting with Putin on 15 August in Alaska.
This follows talks between Putin and US envoy Steve Witkoff. Trump set a deadline for Russia to agree to a Ukraine ceasefire by 8 August, threatening secondary sanctions on nations purchasing Russian oil.
When asked if this was Russia’s “last chance” for peace, Trump avoided the term but expressed optimism, stating, “My gut tells me we have a shot at it.”
A Russia-China-India Bloc?
Harassed by US sanctions, Russia has proposed reviving a trilateral bloc with China and India, an idea first floated in the 1990s but stalled due to Sino–Indian tensions. China welcomed the proposal, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun expressing hope that the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin (31 August–1 September) will foster unity and “high-quality development.”
Modi’s attendance signals India’s willingness to stick to this bloc, though the SCO’s Defence Ministers’ meeting did not condemn Pakistan for the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on 22 April, in which 26 Indian tourists were executed.
Can India and China Reconcile?
In The Diplomat, Shanthie Marriet D’Souza questions whether recent Sino–Indian rapprochement is opportunistic or sustainable. Positive steps include the 23 July meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on China–India Border Affairs and India’s resumption of tourist visas for Chinese nationals, halted for five years.
China reciprocated by approving the Kailash Mansarovar Hindu pilgrimage to Tibet. Direct flights between the two nations are also resuming, signalling a thaw after decades of distrust over border disputes.
However, India’s disillusionment with the US, particularly after Trump’s tariffs and unmet expectations of a trade deal, has driven this shift to China. New Delhi now doubts if the US will support India in a potential conflict with China.
Trump’s threats against BRICS and demands to halt Russian oil purchases have united India and China. Yet, deep-seated issues persist, notably China’s military ties with Pakistan during the May conflict and its trilateral engagements with Pakistan and Bangladesh (19 June) and Afghanistan (21 May).
India could feel pushed out of Afghanistan and Bangladesh, in which it has stakes. India finds Afghanistan’s bid to join the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) an affront to its territorial integrity, as in its view, CPEC is built on land in Kashmir which, according to it, ought to belong to it.
D’Souza notes that global alliances are fluid, driven by national interests. While India and China have oscillated between rivalry and engagement, she concludes optimistically: “After years of contestation, the time may be ripe for another round of meaningful engagement.”