An alleged official Indian hand in the killing of Sikh terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada in 2023, and an attempt to kill Sikh separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in the US, have wrecked India’s ties with Canada and poisoned its relations with the US.

If no solution is found to these issues, or if they are not pushed under the carpet soon, the West could bracket India with “rogue” states like Russia, which allegedly carry out undercover assassinations of their dissidents living in the West.

A deterioration of ties with India will have huge consequences for the West’s resistance to Russian expansionism in Europe and China’s growing muscle and economic power in Asia. The West has given India the tag of a “democracy” and is parading it as a “strategic ally” in the global fight against “authoritarianism.”

The economic consequences will not be high for India if it breaks with Canada because the trade volumes are low. But they will be very high in the case of the US because New Delhi’s economic and defence ties with Washington are huge.

In 2022, Canada exported only US$5.3 billion worth of goods to India, while imports from India amounted to US$8.3 billion, around 1.1 per cent of total global imports.

In contrast, the US is India’s largest trading partner. US companies have invested nearly US$60 billion in India, while Indian companies have invested US$40 billion in the US. There are five million Indians in the US, many of whom are involved in politics, administration, and business.

In the defence field, India and the US have signed several critical pacts, such as the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement in 2016, the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement in 2018, the Industrial Security Annex to enable private sector participation in the defence supply chain in 2019, and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for sharing geospatial information in 2020.

Indo-Canada Relations

On 14 October, Canada expelled six Indian diplomats, including High Commissioner Ramesh Kumar Verma, linking them to the murder of Nijjar. India ordered the expulsion of six high-ranking Canadian diplomats, including Acting High Commissioner Stewart Wheeler.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in 2023 that he had evidence linking Indian agents to the assassination of Nijjar on Canadian soil. Trudeau told the media that his government had “clear and compelling evidence that agents of the government of India have engaged in and continue to engage in activities that pose a significant threat to public safety.”   

“These activities involved clandestine information-gathering techniques, coercive behaviour, targeting South Asian Canadians, and involvement in over a dozen threatening and violent acts, including murder. India had committed a fundamental error by engaging in criminal activities in Canada. This is unacceptable,” Trudeau said.

The Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) said in an earlier news conference that the government of India had also used organised crime to target the South Asian community in Canada and interfered in democratic processes.

New Delhi rejected the “preposterous imputations” in the Canadian assertion. It accused Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of having a “political agenda” centred around “vote-bank politics,” an Indian term referring to communal vote-gathering tactics that favour specific groups on certain issues.

“Since Prime Minister Trudeau made certain allegations in September 2023, the Canadian government has not shared a shred of evidence with the government of India, despite many requests from our side. This latest step follows interactions that have again witnessed assertions without any facts. This leaves little doubt that on the pretext of an investigation, there is a deliberate strategy of smearing India for political gains,” the Indian Ministry of External Affairs said in a statement.

Indo-US Relations 

A US indictment in a New York court bolstered Justin Trudeau’s claim that the killing of Sikh separatist Nijjar in Canada was carried out by the Indian government. The US has also alleged that Indian agents were involved in an assassination plot against Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a Sikh separatist leader in New York in 2023.

Separately, a US District Court summoned India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, former Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) chief Samant Goel, and others last month in connection with a complaint lodged by Pannun. The Washington Post ran a story saying that Indian Home (Interior) Minister Amit Shah had permitted the assassinations.

Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said the allegations were based on “unwarranted and unsubstantiated imputations.”

However, unlike its response to Canadian allegations, India launched an investigation into the Pannun affair.

The US has alleged that an Indian citizen, Nikhil Gupta, was acting on behalf of the Indian deep state in the latter’s alleged plot to kill Pannun. The US extradited Gupta from the Czech Republic in June 2024. He is now in detention in Brooklyn.

But India is attributing the Pannun episode to a nexus of drug traffickers and organised crime. The name of jailed Indian gangster Lawrence Bishnoi is mentioned by both sides as the man who could have ordered the assassinations.

An Indian Enquiry Committee is now in the US to discuss the Pannun case. However, the case is in a US court, and it is feared that it will open a can of worms.

Clashing Notions of Democracy 

India’s standoff with Canada and the US stems from differences in the way they view democracy, freedom, and national sovereignty. The West expects India to adhere to Western notions of democracy, freedom, and national sovereignty, and any transgression is deemed unacceptable and condemnable. Cross-border assassinations or attempted assassinations are viewed as an invasion of sovereignty as well as an assault on democracy, as these are extrajudicial killings that do not behove a democracy.

On the other hand, India feels that it has a right to protect its sovereignty against secessionists and terrorists. While Nijjar had murder cases against him, Pannun is a separatist belonging to a banned organisation.

India’s case is also that it had alerted Canada and the US about the charges against Nijjar and Pannun, but Ottawa and Washington had turned a deaf ear, saying that these two had not broken any local law.

However, a politically and economically rising India now feels that it has the right to defend itself. Indeed, Western powers often intrude into other countries and conduct overt and covert operations against their national enemies.