The interim government of Prof Muhammad Yunus is assailed by multiple domestic and international challenges

Late last week, the post-Hasina interim government of Bangladesh, led by Nobel Laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus, crossed the first 100 days of its existence. However, the event passed with little or no fanfare. 

Assailed by domestic and international challenges, the Yunus administration is yet to find its feet. It has not settled down with a well-structured decision-making and delivery mechanism to match the sky-high expectations of Bangladeshis who are, understandably, eager to savour the fruits of liberation following the ouster of the oppressive Sheikh Hasina regime. 

Conditions in Bangladesh are unsettled, but to be fair to Yunus, not as chaotic as they were from July to October. Various sections of society are still pitching various demands. On occasion, mob justice is meted out to those suspected of collaborating with Hasina. And yet, the government has restored a semblance of normalcy, thanks largely to the moral standing of the President’s Chief Advisor Prof Muhammad Yunus.

The interim government has miles to go before holding elections to the dissolved parliament and restoring conventional democracy. Some groups want elections expedited, while others prioritise systemic reforms beforehand.

Bangladesh Nationalist Party       

In the absence of Hasina’s Awami League, which is on the verge of being banned as a “Fascist” party, the only major political formation in Bangladesh is the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), founded by military ruler and President Ziaur Rahman, and currently led by his son Tarique Rahman, with his mother Khaleda Zia serving as the titular head.

The BNP wants elections held quickly before the current political vacuum is filled by emerging forces such as Islamic parties, which have indicated their intention to contest as an alliance rather than individually. United, they could pose a threat to the “secular” parties.

The BNP also fears that if the political vacuum is left unfilled for a long time, the Awami League might come back, backed by domestic and external forces that had benefitted from association with Hasina over the past 15 years.

At any rate, the BNP feels that an elected government is crucial to address the country’s political and economic crises in a legitimate way. In the BNP’s view, the interim government should not focus on all reforms, but only those necessary to hold a free and fair election. The main aim should be to create a level playing field, which didn’t exist in Hasina’s time.

India Factor

Neither Yunus, nor the BNP, nor the Islamic parties have a good relationship with India, as India had been a firm supporter of Sheikh Hasina. The Hasina-India relationship was exceptionally symbiotic, and so, an eyesore for the anti-Hasina forces in Bangladesh. But the reality is that none of these parties can afford to be antagonistic to India, given the multifarious Indo-Bangladesh ties built over the years and buttressed by the compulsions of geography. 

For instance, although the Yunus government has irked India by seeking the extradition of Sheikh Hasina for trial in over 100 cases at its International Criminal Court, Bangladesh has had to urgently import rice and eggs from India to address severe shortages.

Realising that it has to be friendly to India, the BNP has resolved to address some key Indian anxieties. A BNP document says that it will not let Bangladesh be used by terrorists to attack India and will not allow radicalism and terrorism either. Again, to please India, which is concerned about the fate of the Hindu minority in Bangladesh, the BNP has said that its government will protect the social, political, economic, and religious rights, as well as the right to life, liberty, and property, of all small and big nationalities. Followers of every religion shall enjoy full rights to practise their religious beliefs and rituals, it added. No one will be allowed to hurt any citizen’s religious belief. Any attempt to destroy communal harmony will be sternly dealt with, the party said.

To make it acceptable to those who value the Liberation Struggle (Mukti Juddho), which created Bangladesh in 1971, the BNP declared that it will honour and reward “genuine” freedom fighters and will publicly observe December 16 as Victory Day, as it was on this day in 1971 that the Pakistani army surrendered to the Indian army, giving birth to Bangladesh. The recognition of the Mukti Juddho is also tantamount to recognising India’s decisive role in it.

The religious parties too are feeling the need to please India and broaden their support base domestically to win elections. An scholar and leader of the Islami Andolan Bangladesh (IAB), Syed Rezaul Karim, said that Islam is the only religion which guarantees a welfare state where everyone’s rights are respected. “Islam dictates that the property and assets of a non-Muslim must be treated with equal respect and must be provided equal status as that of a Muslim,” Karim said.

It is not clear if all these pronouncements will convince India, as it sees the hand of Pakistan in the anti-Hasina movement. The fact that Yunus met Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in New York, that trade with Pakistan is being eased, and there is talk of forging security ties with Pakistan have raised the hackles in India.

Structural Changes Before Polls

Political groups other than the BNP do not want elections before structural changes are brought about to eliminate chances of the system being misused. Political groups, including the religious parties, want appropriate structures to be put in place before elections are held.

All, including the BNP, agree that Bangladesh should do away with the “First Past the Post” system in elections, as it allows no representation for the defeated parties. Parties are advocating for the “Proportional Representation System,” in which seats are allocated according to the proportion of votes secured.

There is also consensus on conducting elections under a non-partisan Caretaker Government, as was the case before Hasina abolished the system through constitutional amendment.

A grievance that is being increasingly voiced is that the Yunus government does not seem to be going about its task in a business-like manner. Individual members of the Council of Advisors are voicing opinions on issues unilaterally, as in the case of the students’ demand for the resignation of the “pro-Hasina” President Mohammad Shahabuddin. The inexperience of the Advisors in governance is becoming evident.

Relations with the US

On October 31, during his election campaign, Donald Trump posted an incendiary tweet about Bangladesh, claiming that the Hindu minority there was being brutally treated and asserting that under his watch this would not have been allowed to take place. He also praised Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a time when India-Bangladesh relations were at their lowest ebb. 

In an interview with The Daily Star, Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Centre dismissed Trump’s statements as campaign rhetoric aimed at garnering Indian-American votes, noting that they are generally pro-Modi. He added that it would be up to Yunus to engage with the Trump administration, as Trump is unlikely to take the initiative.

Kugelman suggested that Trump’s ideological alignment with Modi could complicate US-Bangladesh relations, particularly if Dhaka leans closer to China. However, he cautioned that Trump’s unpredictable nature could lead to unexpected developments. “If Trump takes a hard line on US-China competition—he likely will but you never know with him—he may try to push Dhaka to work more with Washington, which could cause tensions. But as you know, Trump is a maverick. While you can make inferences based on what he’s done in the past, we can’t rule out the possibility that he could decide after taking office, to reach some sort of understanding with President Xi Jinping.”

Bangladesh faces complex challenges. However, its history of weathering severe political storms provides a glimmer of hope for solutions.