Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri’s visit to Washington, combined with the US military’s worries about Pakistan’s nuclear programme, is expected to help mend fences broken during the 7 to 10 May India-Pakistan war.

During the three-day India-Pakistan military conflict earlier this month, “strategic partners” New Delhi and Washington drifted away from each other.

President Donald Trump’s jumping the gun by announcing a ceasefire before India or Pakistan did, and his stating that he would mediate on the sensitive issue of Kashmir, embarrassed the Narendra Modi government. While the government was silent, the Indian media and the opposition tore Modi’s foreign policy apart.

It was also assumed that India was no longer America’s equal, as it had allowed the US to determine its foreign policy.

However, many American commentators said that the “China factor” would result in the two coming together again. It was also noted that while Trump was shooting his mouth off, State Department officials were either quiet or circumspect. And the belief was that, ultimately, it is the State Department which will determine American foreign policy.

To minimise the damage done to India’s foreign policy, the Modi government sent several all-party delegations to various countries to explain India’s stand on the war, cross-border terrorism and Kashmir.

But most independent commentators felt that these delegations, composed of non-expert politicians, would not be able to tackle the questions put to them abroad—especially about proof that the terrorist attack on Pahalgam on 22 April was carried out by a Pakistan-based group. The visits were dubbed a “joy ride” rather than a serious diplomatic exercise.

Misri Mission

But the Modi government had a Plan B, which it implemented simultaneously. It quietly sent Vikram Misri, the articulate and erudite Foreign Secretary, to Washington. Misri is on a three-day visit to Washington. On Wednesday, he met the US Deputy Secretary of State, Christopher Landau.

“The visit is likely an effort to smooth out some tensions creeping into the U.S.-India relationship,” wrote Michael Kugelman in Foreign Affairs.

“The imperatives of strategic and commercial partnership remain strong, and Misri’s visit could help move the needle on getting the two sides closer to a phase-one agreement on a bilateral trade deal,” Kugelman added.

After a visit to Washington by Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, negotiations are reportedly entering the final leg, with a US delegation due in India next month, the American expert noted.

DIA Report

More importantly, despite Trump’s effort to hyphenate India and Pakistan, brushing aside the role of the Pakistani state in promoting cross-border terrorism, the US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) in its report to the House of Representatives panel on intelligence flagged Pakistan’s nuclear armoury.

The DIA released its 2025 global threat assessment report, taking into account the situation that existed on 11 May, a day after the end of the war.

Its section on Pakistan focuses heavily on concerns about nuclear proliferation, suggesting that over the next year, “nuclear modernization” will be one of the Pakistani military’s top priorities.

The DIA predicts that Pakistan, impelled by its view of India as an “existential threat” and a desire “to offset India’s conventional military advantage,” will continue to develop battlefield nuclear weapons and modernise its arsenal.

This suggests that the US will view future India-Pakistan confrontations through the lens of nuclear escalation risks—as it did during the most recent crisis. In fact, it was an Indian missile attack on the Nur Khan airbase adjacent to Pakistan’s nuclear command centre which alarmed the US.

US officials feared a Pakistani nuclear retaliation and worked through the night of 9 May to get Pakistan and India to order a ceasefire on 10 May.

War Clouds Don’t Go Away

While the ceasefire is holding, there is military triumphalism on the Pakistan side and determination to strike back with even greater force on the Indian side. Prime Minister Modi said on 12 May that there was only a “pause” in Operation Sindoor. If Pakistan commits any act of terrorism, India will react with even greater force, he warned.

Be that as it may, the US military felt that the epicentre of a future armed conflict will be Pakistan and not India. The DIA’s report noted that for Pakistan, India would be the “existential threat” while for India, the primary challenge would be from China.

An important part of the DIA’s assessment of Pakistan’s concerns was that it would begin to rely on its growing nuclear arsenal. The DIA’s report does not mention India’s nuclear arsenal except slightly in passing.

“Indian Prime Minister Narenda Modi’s defence priorities will probably focus on demonstrating global leadership, countering China, and enhancing New Delhi’s military power. India views China as its primary adversary and Pakistan more an ancillary security problem to be managed, despite cross-border attacks in mid-May by both India’s and Pakistan’s militaries.”

“To counter Chinese influence and boost its global leadership role, India is giving priority to advancing its bilateral defence partnerships in the Indian Ocean region through exercises, training, arms sales, and information sharing. India also has increased trilateral engagement in the Indo-Pacific region and actively participates in multilateral fora such as the Quadrilateral, BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organization and ASEAN.”

“India almost certainly will continue promoting its Made in India initiative this year to build its domestic defence industry, mitigate supply chain concerns, and modernize its military.”

“India continued to modernize its military in 2024, conducting a test of the nuclear-capable developmental Agni-I Prime MRBM and the Agni-V multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle while also commissioning its second nuclear-powered submarine to strengthen its nuclear triad and bolster its ability to deter adversaries.”

Nuclear Modernisation

On Pakistan, the DIA report said that in the next year, the Pakistani military’s top priorities are likely to remain cross-border skirmishes with regional neighbours, rising attacks by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and Baloch nationalist militants, counterterrorism efforts, and nuclear modernisation.

“Pakistan regards India as an existential threat and will continue to pursue its military modernization effort, including the development of battlefield nuclear weapons, to offset India’s conventional military advantage. Pakistan is modernizing its nuclear arsenal and maintaining the security of its nuclear materials and nuclear command and control.”

“Pakistan almost certainly procures WMD-applicable goods from foreign suppliers and intermediaries. Pakistan primarily is a recipient of China’s economic and military largesse, and Pakistani forces conduct multiple combined military exercises every year with China’s PLA, including a new air exercise completed in November 2024.”

“Foreign materials and technology supporting Pakistan’s WMD programs are very likely acquired primarily from suppliers in China, and sometimes are trans-shipped through Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.”

With the DIA’s report saying that India’s concern will be China rather than Pakistan, and emphasising Pakistan’s building of “Weapons of Mass Destruction” (WMD) with Chinese support, Washington will likely lean towards India rather than Pakistan.

President Trump’s equating of India and Pakistan will ultimately not carry weight at the establishment in Washington, where the DIA’s assessment will prevail, US watchers say.

Indian Foreign Secretary Misri’s three-day visit to Washington will help underscore the commonality of interest between New Delhi and Washington and smooth over any differences that might have arisen due to Trump’s utterances.