President Muizzu does benefit from India-China rivalry, but he is also losing ground locally with the opposition raking up popular issues.

The Maldives, which had earlier swung back and forth between India and China, is now pursuing good relations with both suitors. It is primarily seeking defence and strategic support from India, while looking for economic assistance from China. Geopolitical rivals are also vying for closer ties with the Maldives.

President Muizzu does benefit from the ongoing Sino-Indian rivalry, and the regional powers’ bid to woo him to attain their respective geopolitical ends. However, he is also losing ground locally. The opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) is up in arms, planning a massive demonstration on 31 January. This should be taken note of by his benefactors abroad.

The Scenario

Basically, the scenario is as follows: The Maldives knows that it cannot afford to alienate India on defence and strategic matters. It is aware that it is located in India’s sphere of influence. At the same time, it also sees the need to use China’s deep pockets and working style to execute expensive infrastructure projects. Therefore, a Sino-Indian division of labour is emerging in Maldives.

Although ideally, both New Delhi and Beijing would like a monopolistic hold, there is also a growing awareness that a visibly monopolistic presence could invite odium and eventually rejection.

The present balanced approach of the Mohamed Muizzu government is a departure from the past, in which the pendulum was swinging from one end to the other remorselessly. During Mohamed Nasheed’s Presidency, the Maldives was tied to India and the West. It swung to the Chinese side under President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom, only to return to the Indian side under Ibrahim Solih. An “India Out” campaign unleashed by opposition politico Abdulla Yameen again led to the end of Solih’s government and to the installation of the pro-China Mohamed Muizzu in power.

But once in the seat of power, Muizzu realised that he could not run the government without financial infusion from India. For reasons not clear, China did not rush financial aid when the Muizzu government was facing an acute foreign exchange shortage, but India responded with alacrity. A grateful Muizzu, who had sent back Indian military personnel operating an air-evacuation service, agreed to have them replaced by civilian personnel. A threatened review of the Solih government’s agreements with India did not take place.

However, this did not mean that Muizzu shut the door to China. Close on the heels of visits to New Delhi by Defence Minister and Foreign Minister, the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited the Maldives. In this meeting with Wang Yi, President Muizzu emphasised the importance of expediting key infrastructure development projects under the concluded agreements and Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) between the two countries.

Muizzu underscored the need to prioritise social housing and road development projects, which are among the most pressing needs of the Maldivian people. Furthermore, the President highlighted his administration’s focus on economic diversification, particularly in the agriculture and fisheries sectors, and sought China’s support in advancing these critical areas.

In response, Wang Yi said that the Maldivian President is a “good friend and trustworthy partner” of China. Wang affirmed China’s continued support for the country’s sustainable development. He assured that China would support the acceleration of the implementation of development projects in the pipeline. He highlighted the cooperation between the two countries as a testament to how nations, regardless of size, can collaborate effectively for mutual progress and prosperity.

The meeting concluded with both leaders expressing their mutual commitment to carry forward the “China-Maldives Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership” that was agreed between the two countries during President Muizzu’s State Visit to China and to further strengthen cooperation on multilateral platforms, “towards a shared future.”

The discussion came as the China-Maldives Free Trade Agreement (FTA) came into effect on 1 January 2025. The agreement removes tariffs on over 95% of traded goods, offering new opportunities for trade and economic collaboration. Both nations anticipate that the FTA will enhance trade volumes and foster closer economic ties.

Foreign Minister Khaleel in Delhi

Earlier, Foreign Minister Abdulla Khaleel and India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar held bilateral talks in New Delhi on Friday, 3 January. Jaishankar highlighted key developments, including the signing of a framework to facilitate the use of local currencies for cross-border transactions and growing collaboration across various sectors.

Khaleel and Jaishankar reviewed regional security cooperation and explored opportunities for collaboration on climate resilience and sustainable development. They also signed an agreement on implementing the next phase of High Impact Community Development Projects (HICDP) in the Maldives. President Muizzu’s official visit to India in October 2024 had resulted in both countries reaffirming their commitment to a “Comprehensive Economic & Maritime Security Partnership.”

Defence Minister in Delhi

Following Khaleel, Defence Minister Mohamed Ghassan Maumoon visited Delhi, where he received assurances from his Indian counterpart Rajnath Singh of continued support to enhance the Maldives’ defence capabilities. Singh expressed India’s readiness to assist the Maldives by providing defence platforms, equipment, and training to bolster the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF).

During Maumoon’s visit, India provided defence equipment worth over US$4 million, following a request from the Maldives. The consignment, which included utility vehicles, berthing materials, and other essential supplies, aimed at enhancing the operational capacity of the Maldives’ defence forces. Maumoon expressed appreciation for India’s longstanding role as the ‘First Responder,’ particularly in areas like infrastructure development and training of Maldivian defence personnel.

As per the Vision Statement, the two sides had agreed to support the Maldives with the provisioning of defence platforms and assets to augment the capabilities of the MNDF in advancing its maritime and security requirements in line with its national priorities, including surveillance and monitoring capability with the provisioning of radar systems; enhancing domain awareness through infrastructure, training, and sharing of best practices; strengthening disaster response and risk mitigation through development of SOPs and exercises to achieve enhanced interoperability.

Maumoon and Rajnath Singh reviewed their “Comprehensive Economic and Maritime Security Partnership,” reaffirming their shared commitment to regional security and stability. Indian Minister Rajnath Singh emphasised the Maldives’ strategic importance under India’s Neighbourhood First policy. Singh reiterated that India would continue supporting the Maldives’ defence capacity-building efforts through joint exercises, training programmes, and infrastructure support, aiming for mutual benefit and regional security.

Both sides also agreed to cooperate on hydrographic matters through capacity building and training, as per the requirements of the government of Maldives. A mutual agreement was reached to increase capacity building and training slots for MNDF, Maldives Police Service, and other security organisations of the Maldives under the ITEC programmes and other customised training programmes in India.

Maumoon’s trip to India also included visits to the Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited in Mumbai and the Goa Shipyard, underscoring continued high-level engagements between the two nations.

In her comment on the changing Indo-Maldivian relations in the portal www.southasianaffairs.com, Dr Gulbin Sultana of the M.P. Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses New Delhi, said: “Economic compulsion is not the only reason why the Muizzu administration is trying to continue the defence and security partnership with India. The Maldives, with its vast EEZ, is exposed to several traditional and non-traditional maritime challenges, including piracy, IUU fishing, drug smuggling and terrorism.”

“These diverse challenges cannot be addressed by relying only on a few countries. Turkish drones can enhance the surveillance capability of the MNDF, but they cannot ensure overall maritime security. Given the nature of threats, Maldives needs maritime security cooperation with multiple partners in multiple areas.”

“In addition to multiple partners, a country also requires a reliable and willing partner. India’s quick response in times of crisis to the Maldives’ request so far indicates that it is not just a capable but also a willing, trusted, and dependable partner.”

Political Opposition

But a point that Muizzu’s benefactors should note is that he is losing ground at home, faced with charges of non-performance in the light of his pre-election promises. Tensions have arisen over his economic policies, particularly a controversial foreign exchange regulation that requires tourism businesses to convert a portion of their revenue into Maldivian Rufiyaa.

Muizzu had rushed a constitutional amendment in December, which strips defecting MPs of their parliamentary seats and grants the President expanded powers. He has been criticised for lack of transparency and failure to involve public consultation.

The main opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) has plans to hold a street protest on 31 January “in defence of the constitution.”

The emerging scenario in the Indian Ocean archipelago should be of interest to regional and global powers.