SCO’s Council of Heads of Government is meeting in Pakistan on 15 and 16 October
Has the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), which has been in existence since 2001, ever played a role in finding solutions to its members’ problems? Does it have anything to show for itself over all these years, or is it merely a talking shop?
These questions arise as top leaders of the SCO meet in Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad, on 15 and 16 October.
The Islamabad summit will be a meeting of the Council of the Heads of Government (CHG) of SCO member countries. The CHG is the second-highest decision-making body in the SCO. The aim of the session is to advance regional economic cooperation, combat terrorism, address environmental issues, and discuss measures to strengthen the organisation.
Nine of the 10 member states will be represented at the prime ministerial level. Among the attendees will be Chinese Premier Li Qiang, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, Belarusian PM Roman Golovchenko, and Iran’s First Vice President Reza Aref.
Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, Kyrgyzstan’s Akylbek Japarov, Tajikistan’s Kohir Rasulzoda, and Uzbekistan’s Abdulla Aripov are also expected to participate. India’s Minister for External Affairs S. Jaishankar will represent his country.
Representatives from international organisations, such as the European Economic Community (EEC) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), are also expected to participate. The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is a regional intergovernmental organisation in Eurasia. It was formed following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 and is its legal successor. It covers an area of 20,368,759 sq km and has an estimated population of 239,796,010. Its headquarters are in Minsk, Belarus.
The CHG is expected to adopt key measures aimed at enhancing economic partnerships among member states and approving the SCO’s budget for the upcoming year. However, the CHG is being held under trying circumstances, with member countries battling domestic and international problems.
Issues
SCO members face a multiplicity of issues. Russia, a key member, is labouring under punishing US sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine, and the SCO is unable to take a collective stand on it. China is being hounded by the US economically and militarily, and the SCO has nothing to say on it. China and India have a border problem in which the SCO cannot intervene, just as it cannot interfere in the India-Pakistan dispute over cross-border terrorism and Kashmir.
Many in Pakistan and India were hoping that, with Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar attending the summit, steps would be taken to normalise India-Pakistan relations. But Jaishankar made it clear that he was going to Pakistan to attend an international conference and not to open a dialogue on India-Pakistan relations.
Pakistan in Turmoil
Apart from the problems of the big powers, Pakistan, the venue of the meeting, is facing internal political violence and terrorism.
Last Thursday, gunmen from the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) killed 20 miners in Balochistan province. The BLA launched multiple attacks in August that killed more than 50 people in Musakhail district. Balochistan is home to several separatist groups that want independence from Pakistan. They accuse the federal government in Islamabad of unfairly exploiting oil and mineral-rich Balochistan at the expense of locals.
Last Sunday, the BLA carried out an attack on Chinese nationals outside Karachi airport, killing two Chinese engineers. There are thousands of Chinese working on the China-funded US$65 billion Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects. The BLA has asked Chinese workers to leave Balochistan. As a result, Pakistani authorities are curbing the movement of Chinese citizens during the SCO summit.
Last week, thousands of supporters of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party converged on Islamabad and fought with the police, demanding the former prime minister’s release from imprisonment and calling for stays on controversial constitutional amendments related to limiting the judiciary’s powers. The PTI is planning to hold a huge demonstration in Islamabad on the opening day of the summit.
Too Diverse
According to some analysts, the SCO is ineffective and irrelevant because it is too diverse. Temur Umarov of Carnegie Politika states that the SCO is little more than a talking shop. The SCO’s successes have been few and far between because each nation comes with its own baggage and tries to push its particular agenda.
China wants to pursue its infrastructure ambitions in Central Asia. India, too, aims for the same thing but without cooperating with China.
Russia wants to use the SCO to regain suzerainty over its erstwhile Central Asian republics, but it is unable to do so because it is economically weak and embroiled in a costly and never-ending war against Ukraine. China is outbidding Russia in this field.
Umarov recalls that in 2008, after the Russian invasion of Georgia, then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev raised the question of the independence of South Ossetia; in 2014, Russia sought recognition of the annexation of Crimea; and in 2022, after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow attempted to get SCO members to vote as a bloc at the United Nations. Russia’s efforts did not succeed.
The SCO’s Business Council has hosted numerous events, but not once in twenty years has it facilitated a significant business transaction between member states. The SCO’s Interbank Consortium does nothing apart from holding seminars, Umarov says.
If there’s one SCO organ that should operate effectively, it’s the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure. “But that too does little more than help member states organise military exercises. When a major terrorist attack takes place in a member state, all that can be found on the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure’s website are press releases expressing condolences,” Umarov points out.
Brighter Side
However, there is a brighter side to the SCO. Raffaello Pantucci, Director of International Security Studies at the Royal United Services Institute, lists the SCO’s advantages, particularly from India’s point of view.
“Meetings of the SCO mean that both Indian and Pakistani officials at a senior level will have to encounter each other at least once a year, away from the glare of the annual September UN General Assembly meeting. This will provide a neutral forum in which the two rival powers have an opportunity to interact,” Pantucci says.
Further, he states: “Participation in the SCO’s anti-terrorism structure (RATS) may bring some new levels of intelligence sharing and counter-terrorism strategies. The SCO gives India and China occasions to meet and iron out their differences. The China-India relationship has been on a broadly positive trajectory for a while, notwithstanding the periodic border spats. China and India are able to hold constructive conversations on a wide range of issues, from AIIB membership to joint counter-terrorism exercises. The relationship is moving in a positive, though still slightly tentative, direction. And SCO meetings help this process.”
Central Asia is still untapped by India, though Indian soft power already has considerable influence in Central Asia, far more than China, Pantucci points out. “Bollywood movies are much enjoyed compared with Chinese entertainment. But India has not found ways to profit from it.”
India is yet to flex its economic muscle in Central Asia. India can surely gain from access to Central Asia’s minerals and energy, as well as market access to Russia and ultimately Europe. Central Asia is still deeply underdeveloped, offering an entrée for Indian construction firms and others, Pantucci says.
The main problem for India is the physical impediment posed by a disturbed Afghanistan and hostile Pakistan. India has sought to overcome this by developing the Chabahar Port in Iran—an alternative route for Indian products from Central Asia. However, progress beyond Chabahar is not evident.
SCO membership will go some way towards changing the situation for the better, but India will need to make a concerted effort if it is to capitalise effectively on the opportunities that Central Asia offers and successfully compete with China there, the scholar says.
The SCO, therefore, has its uses. An obvious sign of this is that countries are making a beeline to join it. It is an expanding forum, whether it has solid achievements or not.